safe cyclone holes in New Caledonia and try to get from locals and other cruisers precise directions on how to get into them. The NIWA and MetService assessment of named tropical cyclone (TC) activity indicates 8 to 10 named TCs could occur in the Southwest Pacific basin between November 2020 and April 2021. Mr. Chris NobleManager, Severe Weather ServicesTCWC (Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre) WellingtonMetService New ZealandTel: +64 4 470 1175. The Southwest Pacific basin covers 135˚E to 120˚W, therefore the forecast generated by NIWA extends 25˚ westward than the ECMWF forecast domain. Advice. There is very good agreement across the dynamical climate models with regard to forecast rainfall, air pressure, rainfall, and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across the Southwest Pacific. Diamond, H.J., A.M. Lorrey, K.R. At least three severe cyclones reaching category 3 or higher might occur anywhere across the region, so all communities should remain prepared. From November to April, cyclones … The chart was processed from data supplied by the US Meteorological Agency (NOAA). Risk of a TC interaction is expected to be higher across the maritime regions around New Caledonia, Norfolk Island and to the northwest of New Zealand. Tasman Sea and east of the country). In addition, the subtropical jet and South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ[1]) mutually interact and contribute to shear (which can disorganise cyclone systems) during extra-tropical transition. The Noumea, New Caledonia tropical storm risk chart above shows the cyclone season. Category 5 strength cyclones, where sustained winds exceed 199 km/h, have occurred in some years (known as ‘analogue’ seasons) with similar conditions like what exists ahead of the 2020/21 season. A new tropical cyclone formed earlier this evening local time, around 250 miles west of Vanuatu. Renwick, 2015. Classification of synchronous oceanic and atmospheric El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events for palaeoclimate reconstruction. Categorisation of cyclones aligns to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) scale. The Pacific Islands may be facing an increased threat of a Tropical Cyclone this coming cyclone season as NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center confirm that a La Niña climate pattern has developed in the Pacific and is likely to persist through the winter. Mr Meke said Uesi was currently a category two cyclone with winds of up 95 km/hr. Cyclone Cook has formed over Vanuatu and is predicted to intensify to category three as it approaches New Caledonia on Monday. In many cases they’ll spend the best part of their short-lived existence tucked away inside the swell … Even small tropical storms can develop into major cyclones causing extreme damage to infrastructure. Auckland was forecast to have a mostly fine week, with high temperatures reaching between 24-26 degrees Celsius. After that, there were earlier suggestions it could move into the Tasman Sea. The system was the eighth cyclone and the fifth severe tropical cyclone of the 2002-03 South Pacific cyclone season. While that doesn’t bode well for residents of the tropical nation, isn’t a bad thing for surfers residing on Australia’s East Coast. Be aware: New Caledonia can be hit by active tropical cyclones or storms but such severe weather events remain unpredictable and relatively rare and mostly occur between February and April. The method is calibrated using the IBTrACS data set and several key climate indices for the Southern Hemisphere (see Magee et al., 2020 and the supplementary material for more details). Tropical Cyclone Uesi strengthened into a powerful storm system on Tuesday as it continued to batter New Caledonia with heavy rain and strong winds. Weekly statistical forecasts of TC genesis and TC activity for the SW Pacific basin are produced by MeteoFrance based on phasing of the MJO (Leroy and Wheeler, 2008). There is an equal probability of a decaying ex-tropical cyclone tracking to the east or west of the North Island based on historic track data (Figure 3). It was also too early to tell whether any possible remnants could impact New Zealand, but he said there was no threat to the country this week. The consensus forms the basis for the full season (November-April) outlook for Southwest Pacific TC activity (and risk) for the 2020/21 season. Uesi may impact eastern Austrialia with … Photo: Otwaydundee. It was expected to pass close to New Caledonia during the day and overnight on Tuesday, bringing squally rainfall, gusty winds, and rough seas. This guidance is useful for sub-seasonal regional tropical cyclone guidance (see http://www.meteo.nc/espro/previcycl/cyclA.php.) Gergis, J., and A. M. Fowler, 2005. [1] The South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) is an extensive Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation feature that contains one of Earth’s most expansive and persistent convective cloud bands. This information feeds into the final outlook for the season seen in Table 1. Tropical cyclone season is upon us and a new storm is brewing in the South Pacific. The year label notes the first month in the analogue year selection (i.e. The outcomes from this type of situation may include stronger ex-tropical cyclone impacts to northern New Zealand. According to its current predictions, Tonga should expect one or two cyclones for the upcoming cyclone season (December – April). Figure 1. For Uesi, I think the impact will be greatly affected by New Caledonia." News Item Content. They can cause landslides and flooding, and may disrupt essential services. Tropical cyclones are categorised in strength from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most intense. Risk of TC occurrence is elevated for New Caledonia. It would then be followed by another ridge of high pressure, just in time for the weekend. Diamond, H.J., and J.A. By night, it can cool down to below 60°F. New Caledonia Weather in January: In the middle of the wet season, with frequent tropical depressions creating heavy rains and strong winds that routinely blow at about 100km per hour. Tropical Cyclone Oma is predicted to produce heavy surf affecting the coasts of Australia, New Caledonia, and Vanuatu as of Monday, February 18. Information on ECMWF model skill can be found here for: tropical cyclones, severe tropical cyclones, and ACE. A majority of the historic analogues selected for the 2020/21 outlook (four out of five) indicate multiple severe TCs (at least three or more) that were equivalent to or greater than category 3 occurred in seasons similar to the present. There is relatively low disagreement between the analogues for the total number of cyclones for this season, with the one exception being the 2007/08 season. Image (c) Fiji Met Service. evacuation orders). Although Saturday would clear and a high of 21C is predicted, further rain would set in on Sunday. However James said it's not yet clear exactly where the tropical cyclone was heading. Figure 5. Tropical cyclones have a significant impact across the Southwest Pacific, with the season officially starting in November and lasting until the end of April. Tropical Cyclone Uesi recently formed near Vanuatu and is expected to near New Caledonia on Tuesday before it tracks south. Figure 3: Plots of TC tracks and major tropical lows that were monitored for analogue seasons used in the 2020/21 seasonal forecast for the full season (November - April). Statistical prediction of weekly tropical cyclone activity in the Southern Hemisphere. The Noumea, New Caledonia tropical storm risk chart above shows the cyclone season. With ASCAT estimated winds of 50mph and potent … New Zealand should also remain vigilant as the season unfolds. For the selected analogues, all of the analogue years show at least one ex-tropical cyclone came within 550 km of New Zealand. TCO-SP is a long-range tropical cyclone outlook based on a multi-variate statistical method generated using Poisson Regression (Magee et al., 2020) recently published in Scientific Reports. Severe Tropical Cyclone Freda was an intense tropical cyclone that developed during the 2012–13 South Pacific cyclone season and affected New Caledonia and the Solomon Islands as a weak tropical cyclone. Often, its weather is compared to that of the south of France. Level 1 alerts are in place for Boulouparis, Païta, Dumbéa, Nouméa, Mont-Dore, and Ile des Pins. For the coming season, important differences are expected between the western and eastern halves of the Southwest Pacific basin and also for early and late season activity. Vanuatu and New Caledonia typically experience the greatest activity, with an average of 2 or 3 TCs passing close to land each year. Track data are courtesy of International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS). During the warm season, average temperatures are around 25°C to 27°C with heavy rains and risks of tropical cyclones. Cyclone season in the region typically lasts from November to April but storms can occur outside this period. See https://tcoutlook.com/swpacific/ for more details related to this part of the outlook. The spread for the estimated cyclone activity comes from the variation between five selected analogue seasons. The consensus forms the basis for the full season (November-April) outlook for Southwest Pacific TC activity (and risk) for the 2020/21 season. More about tropical storms Past seasons with conditions similar to present suggest several cyclones that develop could intensify to at least category 3 strength. The ICU consensus column is based on the combined outcomes for the three aforementioned types of seasonal outlook information. That warm weather would mostly affect those in the North Island, as a cold front moves over the South Island on Thursday. A new island-scale tropical cyclone outlook for southwest Pacific nations and territories. As such, the tropical cyclone guidance for November 2020 to April 2021 is built on the five remaining analogue seasons identified above. For each year noted, that represents the start of the main development season (i.e. Our new tool, the Long-Range Tropical Cyclone Outlook for the Southwest Pacific , will assist forecasters and help local authorities to prepare for the coming season’s cyclone activity. Language; Watch; Edit; Pages in category "Tropical cyclones in New Caledonia" The following 22 pages are in this category, out of 22 total. People living in Fiji, New Zealand, Solomon Islands, New Caledonia, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and other island nations in the Southwest Pacific will have more months to prepare for tropical cyclones, thanks to a new outlook model published in Scientific Reports. Since it is farther south than most of the other islands in the South Pacific, New Caledonia generally has a very sunny, moderate climate. b Average TC counts calculated for November-April TC season. New Zealand’s National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research (NIWA) and Meteorological Service of New Zealand (MetService) formulated this seasonal tropical cyclone outlook, along with contributions from the University of Newcastle and meteorological forecasting organizations from the Southwest Pacific, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, MeteoFrance and the Pacific Island National Meteorological Services. Elevated risk of TC activity exists for New Caledonia, while normal activity is expected for  Vanuatu, Fiji, the Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea and Tokelau (See Table 1 and Table 4; Figure 1, 2 & 3). Mean sea level pressure (MSLP) is forecast to be below normal from Papua New Guinea to the Gulf of Carpentaria, across the Coral Sea region, near New Caledonia and Vanuatu, and southward toward northern New Zealand, consistent with La Niña conditions. Table 3: Previous analogue seasons and intensity of TCs that occurred in the Southwest Pacific during the November-April TC season . Note that the selection of analogue seasons in this step of the outlook relates to the high-quality TC data period in the satellite era beginning in 1969/70 (50 seasons, for which the availability of TC track data are current only to the end of the 2018/19 season), and the limited number of similar analogues to this season (including rejected analogues). TC tracks for past seasons similar to our expectations covered a wide region both east and west of and including the International Date Line (~165°E – 165°W) during extra-tropical transition (ETT) exiting the tropics at 25°S latitude (Diamond et al., 2013). On average, nearly half of the TCs that developed since the 1969/70 season have reached at least category 3 cyclones with mean wind speeds of at least 64 knots (118 km/h). NIWA says elevated tropical cyclone presence is expected in and around the Coral Sea and north Tasman Sea, especially during the late season between February and April. The area most likely to experience a tropical cyclone in the South Pacific is that of Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Tonga, Niue and the islands of Wallis and Futuna. Having no insurance for the boat meant that all our material possessions were at stake, not mentioning the risk of getting hurt, or even worst. 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